Main topic: Great uncertainty and decision making/strategic planning

Thinking about the long term future is beset by great uncertainty. This is for the simple reason that the passage of significant amounts of time allows for many sources of error: new forms of social and political organization, scientific and technological developments significantly changing the course of human development, and the mere chance of contingent events going one way rather than another. How can one do long-term future studies in the face of such uncertainty? Which tools from decision theory and risk analysis are best suited to the study of the very long term? How should decision makers respond to great uncertainty about the future? How can scientists and technologists best support strategic planning for the long term?