H. Orri Stefánsson: “We need to seriously consider uncomfortable alternatives”
H. Orri Stefánsson, researcher at the Mimir Center, was interviewed in Dagens Industri about geoengineering — techniques for large-scale manipulation of the climate to reduce Earth's average temperature.
“In research, geoengineering has become increasingly relevant in recent years as most people are beginning to realize that there is barely any time left to prevent very serious climate catastrophes."
The article reports that authorities in both the EU and USA have started discussing the necessity of researching geoengineering, and the latest IPCC reports also examines the methods. At the same time, some opposes researching the subject altogether.
“In a way, I can understand that perspective. However, I, like many others, believe that we must take these ideas seriously. It seems that we are heading towards a real climate catastrophe, and we need to seriously consider uncomfortable alternatives as well”, Orri Stefánsson tells Dagens Industri.
He also points out that some geoengineering techniques are estimated to be both a fast and cheap way to lower the earth’s temperature, compared to other alternatives. Therefore, there are reasons to believe that sooner or later someone will try a large scale geoengineering experiment.
"The theoretical evidence we have, coupled with the information we've gathered from major volcanic eruptions, seems to indicate that it could potentially lower the global average temperature in just a few months. It's not difficult to imagine that some state or group of states might be desperate enough to resort to these radical alternatives. There are several states that can afford to do so."
There are ethical and political challenges that need to be addressed before that happens.
"How should the global community react if, for example, a single state or a group of states decides to pursue this? How can we govern it in an effective, ethical, and rational manner?"
There is much scientific uncertainty as well.
"Even though we have modeling and have witnessed significant volcanic eruptions, we've never encountered anything similar in terms of scale and time horizon. There are reasons to believe that something unexpected could occur – what is sometimes referred to as 'unknown unknowns,' the things we don't even know we don't know."
Few, if any, see geoengineering as a desirable alternative, according to Orri Stefánsson. Rather, most see it as a last resort. Interest in the techniques are a sign of desperation and fear that we will not be able to avoid climate catastrophes.
"If we don't see a radical reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, several countries may want to pursue geoengineering. Before that happens, I hope that we will have a well-organized international collaboration on this. Without it, there are possible, very bleak scenarios where the world becomes divided."